The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche that could bring increased rainfall to Galveston and the Texas Gulf Coast early next week, even if it doesn’t develop into a tropical depression.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring a tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche, which may increase rain chances along the Texas Gulf Coast, including Galveston, in the coming days. In its Saturday morning update, the NHC stated that an area of low pressure in the southern Gulf is causing widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatán Peninsula.
Forecasters said circumstances are only marginally favorable for the system to develop into a tropical depression as it moves west-northwest through the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche this weekend. The NHC predicts a 50% chance of tropical development over the next seven days.
While the storm is predicted to move inland over eastern Mexico by Monday, preventing further strengthening, the disturbance's moisture may stream northward, increasing rain chances along the Texas coast, including Galveston, on Sunday and maybe Monday.
Heavy rain is expected to affect Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico, where minor flooding may develop during the weekend. According to the National Hurricane Center, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is prepared to examine the system on Saturday if necessary.
So far, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has produced only one named storm: Tropical Storm Andrea, which formed last week in the central Atlantic. This is the latest first-named storm since 2014, when the season's first storm did not form until late June.
Coastal communities from Galveston to Port Arthur should be aware of potential weather updates, as enhanced tropical moisture may lead to scattered downpours and modest street flooding in low-lying areas early next week.
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