Temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are rising as August begins. While it hasn’t significantly shifted Texas' hurricane outlook just yet, experts warn that warmer waters could fuel stronger storms later in the season.
As August begins, ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are increasing. While Texas has not yet experienced any direct effects, experts caution that these warmer waters may lead to more intense hurricanes during the height of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates that this month, the Gulf’s Ocean Heat Content (OHC)—which assesses not only surface temperatures but also the depth of warm water—has surpassed normal levels. Although the readings are not as severe as those recorded in 2023 or 2024, they still warrant attention from meteorologists.
“Elevated ocean heat content indicates the possibility of more intense hurricanes in the Gulf, provided that atmospheric conditions are conducive to strengthening,” meteorologist Cameron Self informed the Chron. “The ‘if’ holds significant weight as various elements contribute to the reasons behind a hurricane's intensification.”
As of June 2025, surface temperatures in the Gulf reached approximately two degrees above the norm, averaging 83.3°F—comparable to the figures recorded in 2024. In recent developments, the waters off Florida's shelf have soared into the 90s, with a buoy near Virginia Key reporting a temperature of 90°F just last week.
Prolonged patterns reinforce these findings. A recent study featured in the Journal of Climate reveals that Gulf waters have experienced a warming trend at double the pace of the global ocean from 1970 to 2020, with surface temperatures increasing by approximately 1.8°F during that period.
The increase in temperature is noteworthy, as hurricanes derive their energy from the warmth of ocean waters. The NOAA has issued a forecast indicating that the upcoming 2025 hurricane season is expected to be above normal, with predictions of 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.
Experts indicate that elevated sea surface temperatures may not directly lead to an increase in storm occurrences. Still, elevated sea surface temperatures increase the likelihood of hurricanes rapidly gaining strength once they develop, especially when other atmospheric factors are favorable.
We advise Texas residents to remain vigilant as September marks the peak of hurricane season.
